RBs: 2012 review, plus 2013 preview/ranks
Eric Karabell
One might think the entire running back conversation for the 2012 fantasy football season starts and ends with a certain Minnesota Vikings marvel who proved injury timelines can be different for certain players. Well, there was a lot more that occurred during the 2012 season at what tends to be fantasy's most perplexing position. There were hotshot rookies, critical injuries to first-rounders, a former 2,000-yard rusher managed to disappoint us yet again and, well, let's just get right to the season recap and look ahead to 2013. We've already written about the quarterbacks, and wide receivers and tight ends will be coming soon. Enjoy!
Running back MVP: Adrian Peterson blew out his left knee so late during the 2011 season that the injury wasn't surgically repaired until New Year's Eve. It was a bit unfathomable that Peterson would be available and in prime form by Week 1 of the 2012 season, which certainly made his draft-day status problematic. Some believed Peterson would heal so quickly that he could be a first-rounder again. Others presumed he'd miss games and struggle to regain his competency, kind of like what happened to former Pittsburgh Steelers starter Rashard Mendenhall.
<offer>Well, Peterson obviously didn't struggle. He scored 2 touchdowns in Week 1. Then starting in Week 7, he went on a magical run, carrying fantasy owners. Peterson topped 100 rushing yards nine times in the final 10 games. He topped 200 yards twice. He scored 11 touchdowns. He finished as fantasy's top running back by 49 points. Washington Redskins rookie Alfred Morris might have brought more value, since he was chosen in the 11th round, on average, in ESPN live drafts and finished fifth in running back scoring, whereas Peterson went in Round 2. It's just tough to argue against Peterson, though Morris and fellow rookie Doug Martin should get high praise for their accomplishments.
Running back LVP: The easy pick would be Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The fantasy first-rounder played in only six games, reaching double digits twice, then didn't play again for the remainder of the season. Even worse, Jones-Drew was annoyingly designated as week-to-week rather than simply shut down due to his foot injury, but at least fantasy owners knew not to play him.
Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans fits the description of disappointment in the same way New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning does; Johnson delivered two stretches of underwhelming play, both in September and heading to the fantasy playoffs. Still, he did have some big weeks, and he still finished 13th at the position in standard scoring. San Diego Chargers disappointment Ryan Mathews did not. The No. 14 running back in ADP actually played in 12 games, missing the first two and the last two, and he managed to reach double digits in fantasy scoring just once. It was Week 5 at the Saints. That was it. Mathews was regarded as a RB2 most of the season, but he hardly played like it, as he scored one touchdown all year and averaged seven fantasy points per game. That's not very valuable.
[h=3]My top 50 RBs for 2013[/h]First tier (top of Round 1!)
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
Second tier (mid- to late Round 1)
3. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
4. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
Third tier (late Round 1)
6. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
7. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
8. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
9. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
10. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Fourth tier (Round 2)
11. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots
13. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
14. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
15. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Fifth tier (early Round 3)
16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals
17. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys
18. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Sixth tier (late Round 3)
19. Darren Sproles, New Orleans Saints
20. Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins
21. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
22. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
23. Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants
Seventh tier (Round 4)
24. Shonn Greene, New York Jets
25. Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos
26. Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions
27. David Wilson, Giants
Eighth tier (Round 5 and beyond)
28. Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts
29. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
30. Fred Jackson, Bills
31. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
32. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
33. Jonathan Dwyer, Pittsburgh Steelers
34. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
35. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
36. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
37. Bilal Powell, Jets
38. Mark Ingram, Saints
39. Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals
40. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
41. Daryl Richardson, Rams
42. Ryan Williams, Cardinals
43. DuJuan Harris, Green Bay Packers
44. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
45. Bryce Brown, Eagles
46. Ben Tate, Texans
47. LaMichael James, 49ers
48. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
49. Isaiah Pead, Rams
50. Joique Bell, Lions
Just missed: Andre Brown, Giants; Daniel Thomas, Dolphins; Michael Bush, Bears; Marcel Reece, Raiders; Kendall Hunter, 49ers; Shane Vereen, Patriots.
Biggest surprises: It's tough to beat Peterson for top surprise. The guy came within eight rushing yards of Eric Dickerson's fabled rushing record of 2,105 yards in a season. But there were other pleasant surprises, such as rookies Martin, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris bringing back memories of the fine 2008 rookie class when Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton made immediate impact. It was a bit surprising when the talented C.J. Spiller was kept in check by the Buffalo Bills' odd play-calling, and how Kansas City Chiefs stud Jamaal Charles saw inconsistent touches, but they still finished as top-10 running backs. Philadelphia Eagles backup Bryce Brown giveth and taketh away, replacing a concussed LeSean McCoy by exploding for 26 and 27 fantasy points in Weeks 12 and 13, but then he was irrelevant just as quickly. And finally, who could have foreseen Denver Broncos afterthought Knowshon Moreno being inactive for more than two months before replacing injured Willis McGahee in Week 12, and then thriving in the fantasy playoffs.
Biggest misconception: Health is a skill, and some players just don't have it. In the case of ultra-talented Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden, it's time fantasy owners stop expecting a 16-game season. McFadden managed to play in 12 games, accruing the second-most rushing attempts and yards of his career. He rushed for the exact same number of yards as Mathews did, but McFadden reached double digits in fantasy scoring six times. He's a better player; he just can't stay on the field enough. DeMarco Murray, a top-10 running back in ADP, seems to be from the same ilk. Murray is talented; he helped fantasy owners with 15, 13 and 15 standard points from Weeks 13-15. He just didn't play enough otherwise. Draft these guys but never together, and always procure running back depth.
Youngster to watch: What's interesting about the aforementioned rookie running back class of 2008 is that it also featured numerous players from the position that broke out the following season, from Ray Rice to Mendenhall and Charles. They became household names as sophomores. So which of this year's rookie running backs who didn't emerge are on the verge of doing so? High on the list should be the Giants' David Wilson. He called himself a future Hall of Famer, so we've got to believe him, no? Wilson gave a glimpse of his bright future in Week 14 with 28 fantasy points. Keep an eye on the St. Louis Rams and Miami Dolphins, too. If Steven Jackson leaves the Rams, pending sophomores Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead appear next in line. And depending on what happens with Reggie Bush, the next Dolphins starter could be Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller. Competition is a good thing.
Veteran to watch: Speaking of timeshares, it's well past the time for the Carolina Panthers to move on from the annoying DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart platoon. Williams was again miserably underused this season, but of course he ran wild in Week 17 for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns, just to remind us of his talent and somewhat resurrect his value for 2013. This was fantasy's top player in 2008, but he hasn't exactly been abused like Michael Turner since then, either. So watch what Williams and the Panthers do. And while you're at it, watch the Falcons, too. Turner scored 11 touchdowns but otherwise was hardly productive, and Jacquizz Rodgers seems poised for more work. I just have doubts he'll do much with 250 touches, so the Falcons could bring in a guy like Jackson.
Keeper notes: Well, my stance on running backs is pretty clear, since nine of my top 10 overall players are from the position. Secure top running backs, even in leagues in which you need to give up a draft pick in the round you chose him in. Also, keep younger options seemingly on the verge of something special, such as the Giants' Wilson, the Indianapolis Colts' Vick Ballard and perhaps even the Baltimore Ravens' Bernard Pierce, in a deep enough format. For standard leagues, any of the top 25 running backs are reasonable keepers, and keep the good ones you have; you can always trade later.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Watch the running backs go early and often. In 2012 drafts, only six running backs were chosen among the first 14 picks. There's more depth for this season, but since we know there will always be injuries and others that surprise us by underachieving, it's recommended that you acquire significant depth. Even if you can play only two running backs at a time, choosing this position with your first three picks, or four of six, makes perfect sense.
[h=3]Five noteworthy RB stats of 2012[/h]
1. How good was Tampa Bay's Martin in Week 9, when he embarrassed the Raiders and posted 51 fantasy points? The second-best running back performance for the season was 39 points, and it was also by a rookie (Morris in Week 17).
2. Want parity? In the first eight weeks, there were nine different running backs who led that week in scoring (two running backs tied in Week 4). Those running backs were, in order of week, Spiller, Bush, Charles, Turner/Stevan Ridley, Ahmad Bradshaw, Shonn Greene, Johnson and Martin. Eclectic group, no? Overall, 13 different running backs won weekly honors.
3. For the second consecutive season, Darren Sproles was the only running back to catch more than 3 touchdown passes. He caught 7 in both 2011 and 2012. The only other running back with as many as three touchdowns in each season was McCoy. In fact, the top 20 running backs in 2012 scoring combined for a mere 15 receiving touchdowns.
4. Only four running backs finished among the top 10 scorers at the position both in 2011 and 2012: Peterson, Foster, Rice and Lynch. Of the other six in the top 10 from this season, Frank Gore was the only one to place in the top 30 in 2011.
5. Peterson rushed for 1,598 yards from Week 7 on. Think about that for a minute. The only player to rush for more yards than that for the season was Morris, with 1,613, and he needed 200 yards in Week 17 just to achieve that.
</offer>
Eric Karabell
One might think the entire running back conversation for the 2012 fantasy football season starts and ends with a certain Minnesota Vikings marvel who proved injury timelines can be different for certain players. Well, there was a lot more that occurred during the 2012 season at what tends to be fantasy's most perplexing position. There were hotshot rookies, critical injuries to first-rounders, a former 2,000-yard rusher managed to disappoint us yet again and, well, let's just get right to the season recap and look ahead to 2013. We've already written about the quarterbacks, and wide receivers and tight ends will be coming soon. Enjoy!
Running back MVP: Adrian Peterson blew out his left knee so late during the 2011 season that the injury wasn't surgically repaired until New Year's Eve. It was a bit unfathomable that Peterson would be available and in prime form by Week 1 of the 2012 season, which certainly made his draft-day status problematic. Some believed Peterson would heal so quickly that he could be a first-rounder again. Others presumed he'd miss games and struggle to regain his competency, kind of like what happened to former Pittsburgh Steelers starter Rashard Mendenhall.
<offer>Well, Peterson obviously didn't struggle. He scored 2 touchdowns in Week 1. Then starting in Week 7, he went on a magical run, carrying fantasy owners. Peterson topped 100 rushing yards nine times in the final 10 games. He topped 200 yards twice. He scored 11 touchdowns. He finished as fantasy's top running back by 49 points. Washington Redskins rookie Alfred Morris might have brought more value, since he was chosen in the 11th round, on average, in ESPN live drafts and finished fifth in running back scoring, whereas Peterson went in Round 2. It's just tough to argue against Peterson, though Morris and fellow rookie Doug Martin should get high praise for their accomplishments.
Running back LVP: The easy pick would be Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The fantasy first-rounder played in only six games, reaching double digits twice, then didn't play again for the remainder of the season. Even worse, Jones-Drew was annoyingly designated as week-to-week rather than simply shut down due to his foot injury, but at least fantasy owners knew not to play him.
Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans fits the description of disappointment in the same way New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning does; Johnson delivered two stretches of underwhelming play, both in September and heading to the fantasy playoffs. Still, he did have some big weeks, and he still finished 13th at the position in standard scoring. San Diego Chargers disappointment Ryan Mathews did not. The No. 14 running back in ADP actually played in 12 games, missing the first two and the last two, and he managed to reach double digits in fantasy scoring just once. It was Week 5 at the Saints. That was it. Mathews was regarded as a RB2 most of the season, but he hardly played like it, as he scored one touchdown all year and averaged seven fantasy points per game. That's not very valuable.
[h=3]My top 50 RBs for 2013[/h]First tier (top of Round 1!)
1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
Second tier (mid- to late Round 1)
3. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
4. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
Third tier (late Round 1)
6. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
7. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
8. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
9. Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
10. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Fourth tier (Round 2)
11. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
12. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots
13. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
14. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
15. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Fifth tier (early Round 3)
16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals
17. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys
18. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
Sixth tier (late Round 3)
19. Darren Sproles, New Orleans Saints
20. Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins
21. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
22. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
23. Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants
Seventh tier (Round 4)
24. Shonn Greene, New York Jets
25. Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos
26. Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions
27. David Wilson, Giants
Eighth tier (Round 5 and beyond)
28. Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts
29. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
30. Fred Jackson, Bills
31. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
32. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
33. Jonathan Dwyer, Pittsburgh Steelers
34. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
35. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
36. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
37. Bilal Powell, Jets
38. Mark Ingram, Saints
39. Beanie Wells, Arizona Cardinals
40. Bernard Pierce, Ravens
41. Daryl Richardson, Rams
42. Ryan Williams, Cardinals
43. DuJuan Harris, Green Bay Packers
44. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
45. Bryce Brown, Eagles
46. Ben Tate, Texans
47. LaMichael James, 49ers
48. Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
49. Isaiah Pead, Rams
50. Joique Bell, Lions
Just missed: Andre Brown, Giants; Daniel Thomas, Dolphins; Michael Bush, Bears; Marcel Reece, Raiders; Kendall Hunter, 49ers; Shane Vereen, Patriots.
Biggest surprises: It's tough to beat Peterson for top surprise. The guy came within eight rushing yards of Eric Dickerson's fabled rushing record of 2,105 yards in a season. But there were other pleasant surprises, such as rookies Martin, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris bringing back memories of the fine 2008 rookie class when Johnson, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton made immediate impact. It was a bit surprising when the talented C.J. Spiller was kept in check by the Buffalo Bills' odd play-calling, and how Kansas City Chiefs stud Jamaal Charles saw inconsistent touches, but they still finished as top-10 running backs. Philadelphia Eagles backup Bryce Brown giveth and taketh away, replacing a concussed LeSean McCoy by exploding for 26 and 27 fantasy points in Weeks 12 and 13, but then he was irrelevant just as quickly. And finally, who could have foreseen Denver Broncos afterthought Knowshon Moreno being inactive for more than two months before replacing injured Willis McGahee in Week 12, and then thriving in the fantasy playoffs.
Biggest misconception: Health is a skill, and some players just don't have it. In the case of ultra-talented Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden, it's time fantasy owners stop expecting a 16-game season. McFadden managed to play in 12 games, accruing the second-most rushing attempts and yards of his career. He rushed for the exact same number of yards as Mathews did, but McFadden reached double digits in fantasy scoring six times. He's a better player; he just can't stay on the field enough. DeMarco Murray, a top-10 running back in ADP, seems to be from the same ilk. Murray is talented; he helped fantasy owners with 15, 13 and 15 standard points from Weeks 13-15. He just didn't play enough otherwise. Draft these guys but never together, and always procure running back depth.
Youngster to watch: What's interesting about the aforementioned rookie running back class of 2008 is that it also featured numerous players from the position that broke out the following season, from Ray Rice to Mendenhall and Charles. They became household names as sophomores. So which of this year's rookie running backs who didn't emerge are on the verge of doing so? High on the list should be the Giants' David Wilson. He called himself a future Hall of Famer, so we've got to believe him, no? Wilson gave a glimpse of his bright future in Week 14 with 28 fantasy points. Keep an eye on the St. Louis Rams and Miami Dolphins, too. If Steven Jackson leaves the Rams, pending sophomores Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead appear next in line. And depending on what happens with Reggie Bush, the next Dolphins starter could be Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller. Competition is a good thing.
Veteran to watch: Speaking of timeshares, it's well past the time for the Carolina Panthers to move on from the annoying DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart platoon. Williams was again miserably underused this season, but of course he ran wild in Week 17 for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns, just to remind us of his talent and somewhat resurrect his value for 2013. This was fantasy's top player in 2008, but he hasn't exactly been abused like Michael Turner since then, either. So watch what Williams and the Panthers do. And while you're at it, watch the Falcons, too. Turner scored 11 touchdowns but otherwise was hardly productive, and Jacquizz Rodgers seems poised for more work. I just have doubts he'll do much with 250 touches, so the Falcons could bring in a guy like Jackson.
Keeper notes: Well, my stance on running backs is pretty clear, since nine of my top 10 overall players are from the position. Secure top running backs, even in leagues in which you need to give up a draft pick in the round you chose him in. Also, keep younger options seemingly on the verge of something special, such as the Giants' Wilson, the Indianapolis Colts' Vick Ballard and perhaps even the Baltimore Ravens' Bernard Pierce, in a deep enough format. For standard leagues, any of the top 25 running backs are reasonable keepers, and keep the good ones you have; you can always trade later.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Watch the running backs go early and often. In 2012 drafts, only six running backs were chosen among the first 14 picks. There's more depth for this season, but since we know there will always be injuries and others that surprise us by underachieving, it's recommended that you acquire significant depth. Even if you can play only two running backs at a time, choosing this position with your first three picks, or four of six, makes perfect sense.
[h=3]Five noteworthy RB stats of 2012[/h]
1. How good was Tampa Bay's Martin in Week 9, when he embarrassed the Raiders and posted 51 fantasy points? The second-best running back performance for the season was 39 points, and it was also by a rookie (Morris in Week 17).
2. Want parity? In the first eight weeks, there were nine different running backs who led that week in scoring (two running backs tied in Week 4). Those running backs were, in order of week, Spiller, Bush, Charles, Turner/Stevan Ridley, Ahmad Bradshaw, Shonn Greene, Johnson and Martin. Eclectic group, no? Overall, 13 different running backs won weekly honors.
3. For the second consecutive season, Darren Sproles was the only running back to catch more than 3 touchdown passes. He caught 7 in both 2011 and 2012. The only other running back with as many as three touchdowns in each season was McCoy. In fact, the top 20 running backs in 2012 scoring combined for a mere 15 receiving touchdowns.
4. Only four running backs finished among the top 10 scorers at the position both in 2011 and 2012: Peterson, Foster, Rice and Lynch. Of the other six in the top 10 from this season, Frank Gore was the only one to place in the top 30 in 2011.
5. Peterson rushed for 1,598 yards from Week 7 on. Think about that for a minute. The only player to rush for more yards than that for the season was Morris, with 1,613, and he needed 200 yards in Week 17 just to achieve that.
</offer>
